Can the Dodgers make a comeback? Sure. Will they? Probably not. So what do we do? Cheer either way and hope for the best.

It’s Do or Die part 1 of 3 hopefully but this Dodgers team knows they need to just take it 1 game at a time. The Phillies are much too strong for the Dodgers team to be caught thinking 1 or 2 games ahead.

Since the 2009 NLCS is following so closely with the 2008 NLCS, we should probably examine Game 5 of last year’s series to see what to expect tonight. Last year the Dodgers were feeling all the pressure. They had fallen down 1 to 3 games and were on the brink. They came into Game 5 just like tonight’s Game 5 needing to win or pack it up and go home.

In the pitching department it wasn’t pretty. The Phillies struck early. Chad Billingsley didn’t have his best stuff at all. He went 2.2 innings and allowed 3 runs. Chan Ho Park finished the 3rd and and Greg Maddux went 2 innings. By the time the 5th inning ended the Dodgers were behind 5-0.

The Dodgers hitting barely showed up. Cole Hamels was dominating them again for the 2nd time in the series. Manny hit a home run in the 6th and that was the last run the Dodgers scored last year. A fitting cap I guess to a stretch where Manny Ramirez played his best ball ever.

Tonight it’s Vicente Padilla vs. Cole Hamels. Hamels is back, but he’s not quite the same as last year. He got the job done in Game 1 this year but really was boosted by the Phillies’ potent offense. On the other hand Vicente Padilla has been the Dodgers best pitcher in the playoffs. He took a 5-0 record with the Dodgers into Game 3 of the NLDS and was lights out. He brought that energy into Game 2 matching Pedro Martinez almost pitch for pitch giving up only a few hits and a solo home run. The Dodgers came from behind in that game and won, the only win so far in this series.

The Dodgers know they have the chance to score some runs off Hamels if they do it right. The Dodgers need to score early and quiet the crowd like Game 4 but this time without a bullpen meltdown if at all possible. They need to work the count and force Hamels to make a mistake instead of letting Hamels set the pace. Every game where the Dodgers have done this in the playoffs it was to their advantage.

The irony of Game 4 being decided by a perfect Phillies bullpen and a broke down Dodgers bullpen is not lost on anybody. We still know who has the better bullpen and it’s up to the Dodgers ‘pen to make up for Game 4 if they have the chance.

I don’t know if the Dodgers can come back. I think they probably can’t. Still, there’s no reason to give up until one of these teams is popping champagne. The Dodgers need to focus on winning Game 5 and getting this back to LA where they have the advantage. The Phillies want to end it right then and there so they don’t have to hit the road. We’ll see if the Dodgers can change the course of history and keep the Phillies from winning in 5.

The Dodgers will face Cliff Lee in Game 3 in Philly and Game 6 in LA if there is one. Can they overcome the kind of dominance Lee will bring? Yes. They’ve done it twice now already in the playoffs.

NLDS Game 2 – Adam Wainwright vs. Clayton Kershaw: Dodgers won 3-2

• Wainwright: 8.0 INN, 3 Hits, 1 Run, 1 BB, 7 SO
• STL Bullpen: 0.2 INN, 2 Hits, 2 Runs, 2 BB, 0 SO
• Kershaw: 6.2 INN, 9 Hits, 2 Runs, 1 BB, 4 SO
• LA Bullpen: 2.1 INN, 1 Hit, 0 Runs, 0 BB, 0 SO

NLCS Game 2 – Vicente Padilla vs. Pedro Martinez: Dodgers won 2-1

• Padilla: 7.1 INN, 4 Hits, 1 Run, 1 BB, 6 SO
• LA Bullpen: 1.0 INN, 0 Hit, 0 Runs, 0 BB, 0 SO
• Martinez: 7.0 INN, 2 Hits, 0 Runs, 0 BB, 3 SO
• PHI Bullpen: 1.0 INN, 3 Hits, 2 Runs, 2 BB, 1 SO

Twice now the Dodgers have outlasted the other team through a pitchers dual and broken through against the bullpen. This isn’t just one sided though. It required not just cluch late inning at bats and key mistakes by the other side, but an equally dominating performance by the Dodgers starting pitchers and a near perfect bullpen.

If the Dodgers can muster such against Cliff Lee Sunday night it may be enough to take them to the World Series. The NLCS is tied up 1-1 though and it’s anybodies series.

It’s amazing how even the series has been just after 2 games. It could very well be 2-0 Dodgers had they gotten 1 key hit in Game 1 or had Sherrill not given up the 3 run shot. All the same it could be 2-0 Phillies had their bullpen not imploded in the 8th yesterday. It should be troubling to think about for either team but it makes for exciting baseball.

The one sided games may be down the road though considering how potent the Phillies offense can be. On the other hand, the Dodgers offense can be potent as well so you just never know what you’ll get game to game in this thing. In just 2 games we’ve seen strong offense from both teams and strong pitching from both as well. I’m looking forward to Game 3 but I’m still pretty nervous about the whole mess.

Game 2 today was an amazing pitchers duel between Pedro Martinez and Vicente Padilla. Padilla made one major mistake in a solo shot by the Phils that haunted him the whole game and he left in the 8th down 0-1. Pedro Martinez left after 7 complete innings with the narrow lead having kept the Dodgers to just 2 hits and no walks and one hit-by-pitch.

The Dodgers did what they’ve done so many times this year though. They caught a break late in the game and cashed it in. It took the Phillies 5 relievers to get 3 outs in the 8th and by the time they were through the Dodgers had turned the 0-1 deficit into a 2-1 lead. An amazing series of at-bats by the Dodgers brought the game back into their control. What is it about Game 2 mistakes that let the Dodgers slip out of the grips of a dominating pitching performance from the other team?

This kind of game makes me feel good leading up to the Phillies sending Cliff Lee to the mound for Game 3. The Dodgers played this kind of game against Adam Wainwright and now Pedro Martinez biding their time and waiting for a chance to strike if at all possible. If they can get a quality start from Kuroda and the bullpen holds it together then the Dodgers may be left with a narrow chance to cash in late against a Phillies bullpen that has given up 4 runs in 4.2 inning so far this series. It’s going to be a very tough game for LA though, no doubt about it.

Game 1 was all about power bats with 9 of the 14 runs scored coming on homers but the Phillies held on to win 8-6. Game 2 was all about the pitching arms with the Dodgers matching the Phillies almost inning for inning in a close game but catching a break in the 8th to take the lead.

The 2009 NLCS leaves LA with the two teams even in the series 1-1. Just 11 times in the history of the modern LCS has the team with home field advantage lost Game 1 but won Game 2. Of those times, 8 of 11 have gone on to win the series. History means nothing though in the end of course. The Dodgers will need everything they can muster to win at least 1 game in Philly and bring the series back to LA where it belongs.

The Phillies didn’t get to the NLCS by luck by any means. They’re going to cash in mistakes by the other team and make them count. That being said, they barely won last night. You wouldn’t know that by the fan reaction. Phillies fans are calling the series over already and Dodgers fans are second guessing everything and everyone on the Dodgers.

Should Joe Torre have lifted Kershaw instead of letting him serve up that 2-run double that made it 5 in the inning? Maybe. What about Sherrill? Should Torre have forseen his best setup man giving up 3 runs, something he has never done as a Dodger? Of course not. Why are we second guessing a 95 win, NL leading team after just 1 Game in the NLCS?

The Dodgers played very good and the game could have been theirs had 1 or 2 things gone differently. It didn’t though. The Phillies played better and made mistakes count.

Last week I was getting aggravated at Dodgers fans for how they treated Cardinals fans on MLB.com and now it’s the same thing with Phillies fans. Show some class people. I would absolutely love to see the Dodgers win today and watch the reaction of the Phillies fans.

If the Phillies go out and win today then it’s time to worry and the Phils fans can certainly gloat a little. But can we wait for it?

To hear it from the Phils fans on all the forums and news sites this series is over already. Sure, I wanted the Dodgers to win Game 1 but I still don’t think the Dodgers are out yet. Here are the numbers to think about as far as the NLCS from 1985 onward goes:

• Home team wins series: 10 of 23 (43.48%)
• Won first game, won series: 16 of 23 (69.57%)
• Won first two games, won series: 9 of 10 (90.00%)
• Lost First, Won Second, Won Series: 6 of 13 (46.15%)
• Lost First, Won Second, Lost Series: 7 of 13 (53.85%)

I don’t really see why people leave out the ALCS since it’s the same format. Here are the numbers to think about as far as the ALCS from 1985 onward goes:

• Home team wins series: 13 of 23 (56.52%)
• Won first game, won series: 12 of 23 (52.17%)
• Won first two games, won series: 8 of 10 (80.00%)
• Lost First, Won Second, Won Series: 9 of 13 (69.23%)
• Lost First, Won Second, Lost Series: 4 of 13 (30.77%)

Home field advantage means almost nothing. In fact only 10 of 23 (43.48%) NLCS teams and 23 of 46 (50%) overall teams with home field advantage have won the series. It’s much, much more important to win early in the series whether you’re on the road or at home.

Obviously the Dodgers want a win today. Winning the second came is as important as winning the first. You can see that when a team splits the first two of the series that dulls momentum a little. It’s anybodies game after that. But if the Dodgers fall today and are out 0-2 going into Philly then the Dodgers will really be in trouble.

The Dodgers need a stopper today so they can have some momentum when they hit the road. Playing in Philly is not the death trap it was last year. They took 2 of 3 there against the Phillies this year. The problem is that if the Dodgers lose today they’ll face Cliff Lee in Game 3 and you can most likely kiss the series goodbye if the Dodgers fall 0-3 this weekend.

Last night’s game showed this series has potential to be great but only if the Dodgers can deaden the Phillies momentum in Game 2. Let’s hope the Dodgers can bounce back and even this series.

The pitching was the killer for the Dodgers in Game 1. They gave out way too many free passes and Phillies offense cashed them in. Kershaw was solid through 4 but couldn’t make it out of the 5th. Joe Torre gave him plenty of rope and the Phillies hung a big 5 runs on the board because of it.

The Dodgers battled back to within 1 run though only to watch Sherrill walk 2 more runners and then give up another long home run. Again the Dodgers would battle back but not quite enough before they ran out of at-bats.

Despite the results, the Dodgers did a lot of things right in this game. They collected hits and runs up and down the lineup off Hamels and the Phillies bullpen. The defense made several key plays to double off the Phils or to get them into a run down. The Phillies got the key hits that made the difference but they certainly didn’t dominate the game from end to end.

The weakest spot outside of pitching tonight would have to have been Casey Blake who was the only regular to not get a hit and came up with 4 different men on base throughout the game including Matt Kemp in the 9th who was run out on Blake’s double play. One key hit by Blake might have changed the course of the game and with it the series but I guess you can’t count on a miracle every night.

So the Dodgers drop Game 1 and cede the momentum to the Phillies just like they did last year. Right now control rests with the Phillies but if the Dodgers can win tomorrow then history will be on their side again. In 11 cases of this modern 7 LCS game format, a team with home field advantage has lost Game 1 but won Game 2 and then gone on to lose the series only 3 times. That must be the home field advantage kicking in for a 7 game series that it doesn’t seem to do for a 5 game set.

The Dodgers need a stopper tomorrow with Vicente Padilla and they need to work Pedro Martinez like they did Hamels tonight. Given the way the Dodgers played in Game 1 it’s easy to see them able to win tomorrow to climb right back in this thing. They’ll need to tighten up that bullpen though and let’s hope Casey Blake gets back in the swing of things. The Dodgers need him.