Results tagged ‘ NLDS ’
NLDS Game 3: No Worries For Game 4, Dodgers Sweep
The Dodgers are division series champions. They have officially swept the St. Louis Cardinals, their 2nd sweep of the NLDS in 2 seasons. There was a lot of talk about Carpenter and Wainwright in Game 4 and 5 but it’s a moot point now.
Padilla kept the Cardinals scoreless for 7 innings while the Dodgers top 4 in the lineup combined to go 9 for 20 and driving in all 5 runs. The bullpen closed the door and swept the Red Birds out of the playoffs while punching LA’s ticket to the NLCS in the most unlikely fashion, silencing critics the whole way.
I don’t know who the Dodgers will play in the NLCS or how that series will turn out but for now the Dodgers celebrate as Division Series champions and can get back to LA to rest up and prepare for what’s to come.
Go Dodgers. I love LA!
Carpenter Almost A Certainty If There Is A Game 4
The Cardinals aren’t fooling around. They’re going to send Carpenter in Game 4 on 3 days rest. It’s almost a certainty at this point. The only way the Dodgers will stop it is if they win today. Problem solved. Easy, right?
The Dodgers know they still have the upper hand even if fate would have them lose the next 3 and look like the choking dogs that TJ Simers likes to call them when they’re in a bad way. If a full rested Carpenter can show up without his best stuff then a partially rested Carpenter has an even better chance of doing so.
Cardinals fans said that Carpenter and Wainwright would take down the Dodgers for sure. Then they said that Wainwright would win for sure because these two hardly ever lost back to back this season. Now they’re saying Carpenter and Wainwright can’t possibly lose 2 in a row. The constant need for revision is starting to stress out the Cardinals fans who on news sites and MLB.com are a mixture of “We can do it!” and “It’s over already!”
Speaking of fans, you’ll see a lot of Cubs fans making fun of Cardinals fans and calling the season over. That makes sense. That’s what these two teams do to each other. What I hate seeing is Dodger fans taunting Cardinals fans despite the fact that Dodgers and Cardinals are two classy teams that aren’t even a rivalry. Let’s not forget also that the Dodgers barely won Game 2 and the series isn’t even over yet. It’s making me ashamed to see some of these folks running amok on these web sites.
I don’t exactly have a bunch of readers on here to convince but let me go on record saying this: Please stop. There’s no need to be rude even if the Dodgers sweep today. Show some respect and remember that it hurts to see your team fall out of the playoffs no matter what the circumstances. If the Dodgers win then we can celebrate but don’t tear down the other team this way.
Dodgers Roll Out Bubbly For Possible Game 3 Win
It probably won’t be an easy game for the Dodgers today in St. Louis. To say they’ve played poorly in the new stadium is a but of an understatement. The Dodgers are 3-11 lifetime there. But the truth is the Dodgers don’t need to win 2 in a row in St. Louis. They don’t need to even win 1. So the Dodgers will go out in Game 3 and try their best to make it a sweep but if they fall short it won’t be the absolute end of the road like it will be for the Cardinals.
The Dodgers send out Vicente Padilla to face Joel Pineiro for Game 3. Padilla has actually out-pitched Pineiro overall in the last 10 games:
- Vicente Padilla: 9 ER in 23 INN for a 3.52 ERA
- Joel Pineiro: 16 ER in 30.1 INN for a 4.78 ERA
Pineiro is hardly unbeatable even if he has played pretty well at home this year. In his last 5 starts in STL he went between 5 and 7 innings per start and allowed between 1 and 4 earned runs. He’s good but he’s no Adam Wainwright.
The core of the Dodgers lineup has had great success in the past against Pineiro. Manny, Blake, Furcal and Loney are all batting above .300 against him. Maybe this will be the game Manny breaks out in. He is 14-33 lifetime against Pineiro with an .424 AVG and a fantastic 1.288 OPS. Casey Blake is just as good. He’s gone 9-20 with a .450 AVG and a 1.226 OPS.
For the Dodgers and Padilla it can be a kind of crap shoot. He’s been very effective sometimes for LA, even on the road. Once in a while though he has had a bad game. It’s okay if Padilla doesn’t have his best stuff just so long as he has at least a little good stuff. He just needs to keep the game close and let the bullpen handle the rest. The Dodgers other pitchers will be pretty rested and will hopefully pick up the slack.
The Dodgers bullpen has been fantastic in the series. They’ve pitched out of several big jams and kept the Cardinals in check in a big way. In 7.9 innings they’ve allowed just 1 run and an ERA of 1.14.
The Cardinals bullpen on the other hand has allowed 3 runs in 3.2 innings for an ERA of 2.81. The Dodgers goal as always will be to get to that bullpen as quickly as possible and hopefully already have a lead against Pineiro.
The Dodgers actually score more runs on the road on average than they do at home. The same can be said of the Cardinals. Over the last 30 games away this year the Dodgers scored 5.03 runs on average per game. This compares to the 4.33 they score at home. Over the last 30 games at home this year the Cardinals scored 4.37 runs on average per game compared to 4.97 on average in away games over that same span. The Dodgers may have the advantage in this game if Padilla has even half way decent stuff and the bullpen can keep the Cardinals mostly in check.
With the Dodgers up 2-0 in the series it’s not a matter of needing the Dodgers to go out and be perfect but they do need to remember that Carpenter and Wainwright lurk in the shadows possibly for Games 4 and 5 so if they don’t get the job done today then it won’t get any easier from here on out. The pressure is all on the Cardinals though because it’s win or go home from here on out.
The Strange Case of Home Field Advantage In the MLB Division Series
It seems strange to say this but home field advantage, while clearly helping the Dodgers this year, appears not to be all that important in the MLB Division Series. In fact it may even hurt teams. It kind of makes sense why it might hurt when you think about it.
First of all the numbers: Between 1998 and 2008 there have been 44 division series played in the AL and the NL. That’s 4 a year for 11 years. We skip 1995-1997 because the format was different than it is today. These days the team with home field advantage plays the first 2 games at home, goes on the road for 2, and then returns home for Game 5 if needed.
Of those 44 series the team with home field advantage won the series 20 times but lost 24. It’s a small margin but the team with home field advantage has won the series fewer times than the team without it.
Why is this true? Perhaps because it’s a short series. The team playing away just has to win 1 of the first 2 games and then do well at home to clinch the series. This is supported by the data. Of those 24 series when the team with advantage lost, only 7 have gone to Game 5. The rest were decided by 7 sweeps and 10 four game series. This means that 17 times a team had home field advantage but they went out on the road and lost lost the series before they could return to take advantage of home.
This is hardly super conclusive given what little data there is but it’s something interesting to think about. Two times though the Dodgers have had home field advantage in the NLDS only to be swept out and once, last year against the Cubs, the Dodgers swept the series without home field advantage.
It makes me feel good that the Dodgers pulled out that game last night against the Cardinals. I was afraid to see them go out on the road with a 1-1 tie in the series considering how bad they’ve played in St. Louis traditionally. This means that if the Dodgers can’t scratch out a victory in the next 2 games they’ll at least get to play Game 5 at home.
It’s Hard To Believe At This Point, But Dodgers Are Up 2-0 In NLDS
I hate watching people use Hollywood cliches just because the Dodgers are from LA but there’s one thing you can’t deny. The Dodgers have re-written the script over and over this season to prove the critics and us fans wrong each time. Maybe it’s best that way?
Many thought the Dodgers didn’t have what it takes to win the division. They expected Arizona or San Francisco to dominate. The Giants came close of course but the D-backs not so much. The Dodgers took over first place and held on the rest of the way.
Many thought the Dodgers wouldn’t cut it when Manny was suspended. He was playing pretty well before he left. But then the Dodgers turned it on in those 50 games. We saw Ethier and Kemp heading to career seasons and Juan Pierre stepping up in a big way.
When the Dodgers finally clinched the people from MLB.com, ESPN, and even the LA Times got in line to say Cardinals in 3, or Cardinals in 4 if they were generous enough. Well, here we are again watching the Dodgers re-write the script.
So now the Dodgers are in St. Louis for practice today and they’re up 2-0 in the series and they are looking for a sweep, something I thought was pretty improbable. Yet, that chance is there. The Dodgers have shown many times this year that they can play to the level of their opponent and in a playoff situation with great teams the Dodgers are doing just that.
I woke up this morning feeling like it must be a dream. The Dodgers are up 2-0? That can’t be right. What about Carpenter and Wainwright? They hardly ever lose back to back this year so how could the Dodgers be 2-0? They have to be 0-2, or 1-1 if they’re lucky, but 2-0? No way. I guess it’s past time to start believing, right?
So now we wait for Saturday to see if the Dodgers can bring out the brooms. It won’t be nearly as hard on paper to see the Dodgers beating Joel Pineiro who has a bout a 4.14 ERA over his last 10 appearances. It will just depend on how good Padilla pitches for LA and how much the Dodgers can overcome the trouble they’ve had playing in St. Louis recently. More on this later, of course.
NLDS Game 2: Dodgers Take Commanding Lead
The Dodgers were kept in check by a strong Adam Wainwright until he finally left the game before the 9th. That’s when the Dodgers caught a break and with 2 outs they still walked off with a win to take a commanding series lead. The Cardinals biggest advantage in the series, Carpenter and Wainwright, have now been put away with Dodgers wins and the Dodgers head to St. Louis looking for a sweep.
Clayton Kershaw didn’t exactly dominate but he got the job done and only allowed 2 runs in 6.2 innings. The bullpen held on to keep the Dodgers just down 2-1 to allow the opportunity for the Dodgers amazing end to Game 2.
The Dodgers in the 9th quickly got 2 outs. But then a Cardinals miscue let Loney on base to start things off. That was followed by a Casey Blake Walk. Ronnie Belliard would then single to tie the game. A walk by Martin then loaded the bases for the biggest hit of the game by Mark Loretta to win it for the Dodgers. Wow.
The Dodgers have a right to feel great as they travel East after the show they put on for fans in LA. They’ve accomplished a mighty feat getting wins in games that Carpenter and Wainwright started in and silencing tons of critics while doing so. If the Dodgers lose now it will have to be be in LA in Game 5 but history shows that to be very unlikely.
This is the 36th time in Division Series history that a team won the first 2 games of the 5 game series. There have been 22 series sweeps but only 4 times in the past has the a team taken a 2 game lead and gone on to lose the series. The Dodgers shouldn’t take the Cardinals for granted of course but you can’t deny that history of the division series is on their side.
History Now On The Dodgers Side In NLDS
Ok, so how many times has baseball proven somebody’s guess wrong? A lot, I’d guess. Still, looking over the 56 MLB division series played since 1995, if a team won Game 1 of the series they had a 69.64% chance of winning the series. I like those odds.
To extend that idea, of the teams that won Game 1 of the series, 79.48% of them won Game 2 as well. Think that will help the Dodgers any? Well, it can’t hurt I guess. They’ll need all the help they can get against Wainwright.
Game time is just a few hours away and I’m nervous again.
More Thoughts On NLDS Game 1
I’m certainly glad the Dodgers won Game 1 but it seems like they outplayed a poor Cardinals team and that’s about it. Had the Cardinals cashed in even half of the chances they had to score the results for Dodgers fans would have been a terrible sight to behold.
But I guess I really can’t just claim the Cardinals failed more than the Dodgers because the Dodgers definitely made some stuff go their way with the early Kemp homer and a bullpen that pitched out of a ton of jams to hold on to the small lead. Every position player reached based multiple times and that really put the pressure on Cardinals just like LA needed.
A win is a win and the Dodgers aren’t going to complain. They just need to go out in Game 2 and play better ball because they can’t automatically expect Wainwright to give a similar shaky performance like Chris Carpenter.
The Dodgers are for sure over that hump now with that important first win and the pressure is on the Cardinals to some extent. The Dodgers won’t be swept in the series, that much is certain.
It seemed like a bad omen to me when I turned on the game and saw so many Dodgers fans already waving the white flag against the Cardinals hitters who had loaded the bases. Eventually I started to figure they weren’t waving surrender flags after all and the roar of the crowd on that Matt Kemp home run made that idea even more clear.
What a game. What a way to start the series.
NLDS Game 1: An Ugly Win For Sure, But The Dodgers Will Take It
It’s never good when you set a record for 30 men left on base but the Dodgers got the win so we’ll take it. For the Cardinals though it was a nightmare of a game.
Neither starting pitcher had their best stuff but at the same time neither team’s offense would break the game open. The Dodgers took the lead early and held on though and sank the Cardinals in Game 1 with another strong set of innings by the bullpen.
Wolf only went 3.2 innings and left winning 3-2. That left it up to the bullpen for the 5.1 remaining innings and they did their usual great work. Only in the 9th would the Cardinals manage to score off the bullpen but the Dodgers held on to win 5-3.
You have to credit Matt Kemp for getting the Dodgers off on the right foot with a huge early home run and Furcal for being a catalyst several times.
So now the Dodgers can look to Game 2 for Clayton Kershaw versus Adam Wainwright. One question will be if Kershaw will get the jitters in his first playoff start. He definitely has quality stuff to match Wainwright but will he show up with it? I hope so.
What a strange but amazing game this was. The Dodgers did exactly what they needed to do against Carpenter though and they can go to bed tonight feeling great with confidence going into tomorrow’s tough game.
Some Final Thoughts Before The 2009 NLDS Begins
We know the 3 pitchers who will compete in Games 1,2 and 3.
Game 1: Chris Carpenter vs. Randy Wolf at Dodger Stadium
- Wolf Last 10 outings: 19 ER in 67.1 INN for a 2.55 ERA
- Carpenter last 10 outings:17 ER in 69 INN for a 2.22 ERA
Game 2: Adam Wainwright vs. Clayton Kershaw at Dodger Stadium
- Kershaw Last 10 outings: 16 ER in 50.1 INN for a 2.87 ERA
- Wainwright last 10 outings: 18 ER in 68 INN for a 2.38 ERA
Game 3: Vicente Padilla vs. Joel Pineiro at Busch Stadium
- Pineiro last 10 outings: 30 ER in 65.2 INN for a 4.14 ERA
- Padilla Last 10 outings: 23 ER in 51 INN for a 4.06 ERA
If you notice in each of these games the difference in ERA is less than 1 run. This means that if both pitchers bring their A game each time then it should be a pretty good series that could go either way.
Dodgers In 3?
For the Dodgers to sweep this would be some kind of miracle I think. They would have beaten both Carpenter and Wainwright and won a game in St. Louis. I think this is the least likely outcome of this series. Still, it’s not impossible given the Cardinals work against lefty pitching. The Cardinals may not be troubled at all by Wolf or Kershaw but you just never know.
Cardinals In 3?
This is very possible. If Carpenter and Wainwright completely dominate the Dodgers hitters in LA then the Cardinals will be looking sweep in Game 3 in STL. That would be a bad situation for the Dodgers to overcome away from LA.
Dodgers In 4?
This is more probable but still not all that likely for the Dodgers. They would need to win 2 in LA and 1 in STL or 1 in LA and 2 in STL. It would be pretty good if the Dodgers could win at least 1 in LA and then they’d have a little better chance against the #3 and #4 starters in STL. They would be lucky to avoid a Game 5 which will most likely be Carpenter again.
Cardinals In 4?
This is in my mind the most likely outcome in the series. The Dodgers can surely win at least 1 in the series and being troubled by their recent bad luck in STL just can’t win enough away from LA to keep the series alive.
Dodgers In 5?
This would be the most interesting outcome for sure. The Dodgers would need to win just 1 in LA and 1 in STL and then somehow beat Carpenter in Game 5. It would be a huge victory in front of the home crowd like the NLDS last year.
Cardinals In 5?
This would be a very disappointing loss for the Dodgers. It would mean they’d made it to Game 5 but couldn’t seal the deal. This would leave a bad taste in the mouths of many fans. Still, if you’re going to lose a series let it be the last game and not feel like the team was over-matched.
Parting Words
I don’t know how this series will turn out. It could be close and down to the wire or each game could be terribly one sided. In the playoffs it’s sometimes the least likely player that steps up and comes through big. The Dodgers will field a team very capable of scoring runs even against good pitching if they play smart ball. Their bullpen has been top notch all season and their starting pitching has been spectacular many times this year.
The Dodgers game in LA should be to be patient at the plate early. Carpenter and Wainwright love to go deep into games. The Dodgers can’t let this happen. These two average about 7 innings per game but the Dodgers patience can get that down to 6 possibly leaving 3 crucial innings where it’s bullpen against bullpen with the Dodgers having a slight advantage.
In STL the Dodgers need to be aggressive probably. Pineiro can be good at home but he’s not unbeatable. The same can be said for whoever the Cardinals run out for Game 4 if there is one. The Dodgers will need to try to get on base any way possible and put pressure on the Cardinals. Pineiro doesn’t average as many innings per start as Carpenter and Wainwright and if the Dodgers are aggressive but don’t swing at too many bad pitches they can easily make it a battle of the bullpens again if they keep the game close.
I’m very nervous and excited for this thing to begin. It’s sad because the Dodgers could be done and out by this weekend if things go bad. But, I’m staying positive. I know the Dodgers are a good team plenty capable of winning the series if things go their way. The Cardinals are a strong team made better by late season pickups but they still have flaws that the Dodgers can exploit to shift advantage. I hope that the Dodgers at least make it a competitive series if nothing else. It’s about 12 hours until the start of Game 1 at Dodger Stadium.
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