Tagged: Nationals
Prediction: Dodgers @ Nationals – Tossup
Typically when the Dodgers meet the Nationals there’s a clear advantage Dodgers even if that’s not how the series turns out. This year both the Dodgers and Nationals meet as pretty evenly matched teams.
The Dodgers are an offensive force right now averaging 6.53 runs per game to the Nationals 4.69 so there’s a pretty clear advantage in that department.
As far as runs allowed and team ERA goes the two are pretty similar. The Dodgers have an ERA of 5.60 to the Nationals 5.99. That difference of a half of run may not mean much in the series.
The difference in pitching is between starting rotation and the team bullpens. The Dodgers have slightly better starting pitching with an 5.29 ERA to the Nationals 6.95. The Dodgers bullpen ERA is 6.62 to the Nationals 4.82. That 1.80 run bullpen difference compared to the 1.66 run difference in starters shows you how the two teams even out on the team ERA.
There’s interesting overlap for the Dodgers and Nationals as far as which innings they score in and which innings they allow the most runs in.
The Dodgers two best innings for scoring are the 1st and the 7th which conveniently are two of the Nationals worst innings for runs allowed. The 1st, 2nd, and 3rd are the Nationals 3 best innings for scoring which are conveniently 3 of the better innings for the Dodgers for runs allowed. If the Dodgers can keep the Nationals off the board early in the game they should be able to stifle them as the Nationals score fewer and fewer runs as the game progresses.
Game 1: LAD – Haeger, RHP (0-1, 7.20) vs WSH – Atilano, RHP (0-0, -.–)
Haeger and his knuckle-ball will be at it again. This will be Luis Atalano’s major league debut. Expect the unexpected in this game. Haeger could be wild and Atalano could be nervous or either one could pitch a brilliant game. I won’t try to predict which result we’ll get.
Game 2: LAD – Kershaw, LHP (1-0, 3.18) vs WSH – Stammen, RHP (1-0, 8.16)
Kershaw has had good starts and bad starts this year but he’s got a decent ERA that the Dodgers hitters should be able to overcome easily. Stammen has a pretty large ERA to help the Dodgers accomplish that.
Game 3: LAD – Billingsley, RHP (1-0, 7.07) vs WSH – Olsen, LHP (0-1, 11.74)
Billingsley seems to be getting worse in every start but he may turn that around any day. If not the Dodgers offense is set to back him up against Olsen and his 11.74 ERA.
Prediction
Dodgers should win this series but it’s hard to tell if they will. The Dodgers are hardly predictable so far this season and you never know if you’ll get brilliant pitching or insane offense or none of the above. The Dodgers have struggled against mediocre teams on the road as well so far.
Still, I’d like to be positive and say the Dodgers will take 2 out of 3 at least. If the Dodgers can limit the defensive blunders and keep their strong offense going they should be able to overcome any weakness with the pitching.
Dodgers Can’t Make It Over The Hump
For the 4th time this season the Dodgers were sitting on an even .500 record and had a chance to get over that hump and get more wins than losses. For the 4th time they failed.
The first time was against the Marlins. The Dodgers went into the 9th leading 6-4 and gave up 3 runs to lose.
The second time was against the Giants and the Giants shut the Dodgers out for the first time this season.
The third time was in Cinci and the bullpen gave up 2 in the 8th to let the Reds slip by.
The fourth time was last night when the Dodgers bullpen gave up 4 in the 7th and let the Reds take the series.
Notice a pattern here? The bullpen has been a disaster. With every success the Dodgers have had this season there’s always a looming fear that the starting rotation won’t stop having poor starts, the bullpen won’t get better, or the defense won’t improve. What good is leading baseball in hitting if you’re in the back of the pack for defense and pitching?
Hopefully this gets ironed out soon but so far road trips for the Dodgers have been a dismal failure and there’s 6 more games on this stretch where they could reverse that or make it just that much worse. We’ll just have to see. I know there’s a good team inside this group of Dodgers somewhere just waiting to bust out. It could be this weekend against the Nationals.
Dodgers Take Rubber Game, Win A Close One
While the Giants were getting under way out West and the Padres were tying up the game against the Rockies, the Dodgers were busy trying to catch a break in a surprisingly close Game 3 against the Nationals.
Padilla had possibly his worst start as a Dodger but it wasn’t quite so bad and he left winning 6-4. That didn’t last long though as the Nationals plated 2 against Belisario in the 7th. The Dodgers finally got the lead back on a Furcal solo shot in the 8th and then Sherrill and Broxton gave the Nats the old one-two punch.
The Dodgers have now won the last 5 series, going 11-4 in that stretch. The loss tonight pushes the Nationals to the century mark. They have lost 100 games and won only 52. In the battle for 1st round draft pick, the Nationals are ahead of the Pirates by a nose.
The story of the series has to be Furcal who was absolutely feasting on Nationals pitching. Furcal in the 3 games went 10-14 with 5 runs scored, 5 runs driven in, and even 1 walk. Raffy has struggled for the most part this year but is heating up at just the right time.
The Dodgers had another night where they stranded a lot of men and failed to hit with RISP, but they still got the win and at this point that’s all that matters. They’ll pack up and head to Pittsburgh to finish off the season series with the Pirates before they fly to San Diego.
The win tonight twists the knife in Atlanta and San Francisco. The Dodgers would have to go 0-9 and the Giants and Braves 10-0 just to tie the Dodgers. The Braves are off tonight so they can’t be eliminated from competing with the Dodgers in the Wildcard, but that’s not the case for the Giants who now teeter on the edge of NL West elimination.
When In DC, Dodgers Do As Nationals Do
The Dodgers gave Billingsley an early lead and he had a pretty good outing, taking a no hitter into the 6th. A couple of walks and a bad pitch lead to a 3 run homer though to tie it up. Costly miscues by the Dodgers then let a rare earned run come across against George Sherriill in the 8th.
The Dodgers battled back in the 9th tying the game and keeping the bases loaded with nobody out. But then Ethier, Manny, and Kemp all three failed to score the tie breaker. In the bottom of the 9th James MacDonald was knocked around a bit and the Nationals slipped away with a walkoff run.
It’s pretty hard to score many runs when your 3,4,5 guys are a combined 0-12 on the night. The 0-12 guys were sandwiched between Furcal, Belliard and Loney who all 3 had 2 hits a piece. The Dodgers were 2-16 with RISP and left 10 men on base. It’s not hard to see how a couple of key hits by the 3,4,5 guys might have made this a completely different game.
Oh well, I guess. I had almost forgotten the Dodgers could lose a game. I know their streak was only 3 but they also had an off day so it’s been practically forever since the Dodgers lost a game until tonight.
Going back to Billingsley, is a shame that in each of his starts it seems like one or two major mistakes dooms the team. The Dodgers on their 3 game winning streak had outscored opponents 32-5. That is some impressive numbers. Billingsley couldn’t have started on a 14-2 night? He has to start on a night when the Dodgers look all too human behind the plate again? It’s just a shame really.
The Braves are winning tonight either way so clinching was already out of the question even with a win. The Dodgers will instead just go get some rest and try and come out tomorrow and pound the Nationals in the rubber game.
Hopefully the Giants will lose so the Dodgers will have an easier time clinching tomorrow. That game is just getting started though. The Padres are currently beating the Rockies 6-1 in the 5th.
It’s the Pitching, Not Manny
While it’s hard to measure the mental impact and distraction factor of having Manny Ramirez suspended 50 games the day after breaking the modern baseball record for consecutive home wins to start the season, we can look at the results so far to guess at the impact this has had on the Dodgers season.
LA so far without Manny hasn’t fared as well compared to with Manny. The first instinct of many fans may be to be to blame the offensive hole left by Manny. The numbers don’t really paint that picture though.
With Manny – Games 1-29
Wins / Losses: 21-8
Runs Scored / Allowed: 161-106
AVG Hits Per Game / Allowed: 9.59-6.97
AVG Runs Scored Per Game / Allowed: 5.55-3.66
Dodgers with RISP: 82 for 288 (.285 AVG)
Opponents with RISP: 43 for 220 (.195 AVG)
Without Manny – Games 30-36
Wins / Losses: 3-4
Runs Scored / Allowed: 40-31
AVG Hits Per Game / Allowed: 11.86-8.86
AVG Runs Scored Per Game / Allowed: 5.71-4.43
Dodgers with RISP: 24 for 78 (.308 AVG)
Opponents with RISP: 16 for 75 (.213 AVG)
Though the small number of games since the suspension skews the results a bit, you can clearly tell that the Dodgers have hit as good if not better than before. Juan Pierre for instance has been hot, Martin’s breaking out of his slump, James Loney is starting to hit home runs, etc. This clearly makes up for the Dodgers missing their slugger in the three hole.
So why are the Dodgers spinning their wheels a bit? It’s the pitching. Here are the results of the four games the Dodgers have lost since Manny was suspended:
- 9-11 against the Nationals
- 1-3 against the Giants
- 5-7 against the Giants
- 3-5 against the Phillies.
While averaging a bit more runs scored per game the Dodgers pitching has been allowing between 1 and 2 more runs per game and their opponents are hitting .213 with RISP as opposed to .195 before Manny left. All four losses have been a 2 run difference.
So did Manny’s suspension somehow throw the Dodgers pitching into a tailspin? That’s doubtful. It’s no news to anyone that the pitching has been in question since before the season even started. I would argue the pitching has performed above expectations in the first month of the season and faltering a bit lately is no surprise at all.
Having Manny back will help the Dodgers but hitting is not their problem. Over the next 43 games without Ramirez the Dodgers will need to stay focused on continuing to get quality starts from their front men and seeing that the bullpen gives up fewer runs.
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