Results tagged ‘ D-backs ’
Why I Already Think the Dodgers Will Win the West
The Dodgers are just 2 games behind the Padres as they start the 2nd half of the season. That means they need to win only 3 more games than the Padres to clinch a 3rd straight NLW championship. It’s not always easy to make up ground in a division unless one team melts down or another team goes on a hot streak but when it’s a matter of just 3 games anything can happen.
The 1st half success of the Padres revolved around their success outside of the division while the Dodgers success clearly revolved around success inside the division. The Dodgers have won 7 more division games than the Padres and the Padres have won 9 more games than the Dodgers outside of the division for a net of 2 plus games for the Padres lead.
Only 1/3 of the first 88 games were inside the division where the Padres are a break-even 16-15 against the the NLW. The trouble for San Diego lies in the fact that Western matchups make up nearly 2/3 of the remaining 74 games for both teams. This gives a significant advantage to the Dodgers who finished the first half an incredible 23-6. The Dodgers have 43 of 74 games left against the division and the Padres have 41 of 74.
It’s unrealistic to think that the Dodgers can somehow maintain that 23-6 record they have against the NLW but LA doesn’t need a huge comeback to overcome San Diego. They can win the division if they stay on track against division teams and they don’t suffer any key injuries.
Simple Projection of Standings Based on Performance So Far
Taking into account the performances up to now in 4 areas (home outside division, away outside division, home against division, away against division) here is a simple projected final standings:
- Dodgers: 49-39 so far, 95-67 projected
- Padres: 51-37 so far, 92-70 projected (-3.0)
- Rockies: 48-38 so far, 90-72 projected (-5.0)
- Giants: 47-41 so far, 81-81 projected (-14.0)
- D-backs: 34-55 so far, 62-100 projected (-33.0)
Dodgers Half Way Through
The Dodgers through 81 games have a 45-36 record and sit in solid 2nd place just 3.5 games behind the Padres. It’s been a weird year so far.
It’s hard to believe last year the Dodgers took 1st place and held it relatively comfortable for the rest of the season. This year not so much. The Dodgers fell behind the Padres early on and have struggled to keep up. LA has been in first place a couple of times but never held on with Interleague being a big part of the Dodgers slip in the standings.
When considering the results so far I like to see how the teams are doing at home, on the road and inside the division. Looking ahead I like to add up the records of all the opponents teams will face going forward and see how much above or below .500 that record is. That can give a bit of perspective on how tough or how easy a schedule could be for that team.
Padres So Far
The Padres win well this year whether they’re home or away. They are 22-14 on the road which is the best in the NL. They are 8 games above .500 on the road which matches their 8 games difference at home. This is due to their outstanding pitching no doubt.
The Padres have struggled against the NLW a little but they are still 2 games above .500 overall. The Padres play a lot of easy teams in the 2nd half including 4 series with the D-backs, 2 series with the Pirates, and 2 series with the Cubs. The overall record of the teams the Padres face from here on out is -70.
For the Padres to hold back the Dodgers and Rockies San Diego will need to keep pitching well. The question remains can they do it? Will their bullpen stay consistent as the innings add up over the long season? As a Dodger fan I hope not.
Dodgers So Far
First of all the Dodgers are destroying the division. They are 23-6 in 10 series. They have won 9 of the 9 total 3 game series and they split a 2 game series with the Padres. What will help the Dodgers in the 2nd half is that 43 of 81 remaining games are against division foes.
The Dodgers managed to even their road record to 21-21 with a win yesterday. They play slightly more games at home from here on out than they do away but they still face some very tough teams. The overall record of the teams the Dodgers face from here on out is +51.
For the Dodgers to overcome the Padres they will need to continue doing what they are doing. My formula for success for them this season is to play around .500 on the road, play great at home, and continue to destroy the teams inside the division. If they do that they are on track for another 95 win season and could easily be in a spot to win the division or capture the wildcard.
Rockies So Far
The Rockies are the weird team of the division. They are 11 over .500 at home and 5 over on the road. They are doing fair inside the division. Overall though they’ve had a fairly mediocre 1st half. They have the ability to play better in the 2nd half for sure so I can’t say anything that discounts their threat inside the division.
The Rockies still play some tough teams but overall they have a decent schedule ahead of them. The overall record of the teams the Rockies face from here on out is +30.
Giants So Far
The Giants were top of the pack for a long time but they’ve fallen off in a big way in the last few weeks. They’ve lost their last 5 series and they are 4-12 over that stretch. They sit in 4th place 7.5 games back and unless they make some kind of trade their season may end pretty early.
The Giants have very few tough teams left to face. The problem is they aren’t succeeding inside the division so this could hurt them. The overall record of the teams the Giants face from here on out is +20.
D-backs So Far
The team that some picked to lead the division this year has done anything but. They’ve compiled a 32-50 record and they fired the manager and general manager just a few days ago. They would have to go 57-23 just to tie the Padres if the Padres won only 40 of the remaining 80 games. It’s all but over already for the D-backs baring some massive meltdown of the rest of the division in combination with some superior surge by Arizona. In short, better luck next year, D-backs.
Simple Projection of Standings Based on Performance So Far
Taking into account the teams performances up to now in 4 areas (home outside division, away outside division, home against division, away against division) here is a simple projected final standings:
- Padres: 49-33 so far, 96-66 projected
- Dodgers: 45-36 so far, 95-67 projected (-1.0)
- Rockies: 43-37 so far, 89-73 projected (-7.0)
- Giants: 41-40 so far, 77-85 projected (-19.0)
- D-backs: 32-50 so far, 64-98 projected (-32.0)
Two Games Into June, Dodgers Are A Legitimate Threat
After a lackluster 9-14 start in April I don’t think any Dodger fan expected the Dodgers to be near the front of the pack as June gets on it’s way. Yet, after a sweep of the D-backs and their 4th straight win the Dodgers sit with a record of 31-22. Today only 3 teams in all of baseball have better records: The Rays have won 36 games, the Yankees 33, and the Padres 32.
One of the two teams tied with the Dodgers in wins is the Braves who start a huge 4 game series tonight in LA. Strangely enough the Braves and Dodgers have had identical records at the end of each month and still sit tied after winning each of their first 2 games in June. It would be very ironic if after this weekend the two teams had split the 4 game series.
The key to the Atlanta series will be whether or not the Dodgers can score some runs in bunches. The Braves are an offensive force right now. I don’t think LA can count on too many more 0-1 wins to carry them. Luckily the Dodgers should have their 4 best pitchers since the 5th spot passed yesterday and many of their regular position players rested most of yesterday’s game.
Tonight is a perfect chance for LA to gain the upper hand in the series. Kuroda likes to go deep into games and can give the bullpen some much needed rest. If he can get to the 7th or 8th that would really help his team in the next 3 games. He has struggled in his last few starts though. Kuroda is coming off his shortest and worst outing of the season but hopefully he’ll snap back to form and get the Dodgers off on the right foot.
Dodgers Finish Up May With Weird Game
As if starting with a double, 3 home runs and 6 strikeouts wasn’t weird enough the D-backs would error twice in the 8th allowing 2 Dodger runs to score to tie the game and finally balk in the losing run in the 9th. This was their 8th straight loss and gave LA their 6th win against the D-backs in 7 games. Weird from end to end. The LA will take it though.
While April had the Dodgers fans tearing out their hair May was a much better month. LA finished May 20-8. This is a record matched only by the Braves who also finished April 9-14 just like the Dodgers did. I guess this one may end up having to be decided in the head to head match ups down the line.
LA gained 4 games or more on every team in the NL West in May and even went from worst to first for a brief moment. LA struggled a bit at the end and finished 2 games back of San Diego in 2nd place.
- Padres: 16-12 (0.571) – Overall: 31-20 (0.608)
- Dodgers: 20-8 (0.714) – Overall: 29-22 (0.569)
- Giants: 14-14 (0.500) – Overall: 27-23 (0.540)
- Rockies: 16-12 (0.571) – Overall: 27-24 (0.529)
- D-backs: 9-20 (0.310) – Overall: 20-32 (0.385)
The Dodgers can’t expect to keep up such a pace in June but I still stand by my previous statements. If they can keep playing .500 on the road as they have done, continue to win far more games than they lose at home, and dominate inside the division, then LA will have a pretty good regular season.
Keys to success in June will be for the top four pitchers to continue to improve as they did in May and for Furcal, Manny, and Ethier to stay healthy and play together which has been an issue so far this season.
Dodgers Keep Rolling, Sweep D-backs, Earn Another Off Day
Today is a travel day with the Dodgers heading out of Arizona over to San Diego. They deserve the break. With a sweep of the D-backs they’ve won 4 in a row and 9 of the last 12 games. It’s safe to say that in May the Dodgers have turned things around in a big way.
There’s a lot to talk about in this 9 of 12 stretch. First of all the Dodgers pitchers have allowed 3 or fewer runs in 8 of the 12 and they’ve won all 8 of those. This has been particularly notable over the 4 game winning streak LA currently holds.
- Kershaw: 8 IP, 0 ER
- Billingsley: 5.1 IP, 2 ER
- Ely: 6.0 IP, 2 ER
- Kuroda: 7.1 IP, 2 ER
None of the starting pitchers have allowed more than 2 runs and all 4 secured a win in the game. The bullpen has only worked 9.2 innings in the 4 games as well. You can’t ask for better pitching in that sense.
In that stretch of 4 games the Dodgers have allowed only 1 run to score in the 1st and 2nd innings. I noted a few days ago how crucial this has been for LA to keep runs off the board early and that was a key to their success against the D-backs.
The Dodgers have inched back up to a .500 record and will for the 5th time this year attempt to win a game over .500. They’ve failed in each of the 4 other chances.
Also of note? Manny’s back and he’s continued where he left off a few weeks back. In the 4 game he’s got 4 hits, 3 runs, 4 RBI, 5 walks. If Ethier stays hot and Kemp continues to climb out of his slump things could continue to be very exciting in May.
The Dodgers will play the 1st place San Diego Padres to see if LA can sustain their recent success and maintain their streak inside the division. This is the only team the Dodgers haven’t faced from the West so far this season. The Dodgers have played the Giants and Rockies once and the D-backs twice and have won all four series with a 9-3 record.
The Padres are an underdog team playing great baseball. The Dodgers will look to derail that and gain some ground on the 1st place team. The Padres play today in the off day so the Dodgers could go into the series either 5 or 4 games back depending on today’s outcome. I’ll have more on this tomorrow when the series gets closer.
Dodgers Wins Coming In Bunches Now
Don’t look now but the Dodgers have won 7 of the last 10 games and those wins have come in sets of 2 or 3. The Dodgers started the month in last place and now have climbed back up to a tie for 3rd place again. Hopefully they can keep it up.
Their record inside the NLW is 7-3 which is the best of the 5 teams. The Dodgers have done well so far this year at home overall too. If they can maintain that and try and stay around .500 on the road they’ll have a lot better chance of catching the Padres and the Giants who are currently battling for 1st place every night.
The Dodgers will play San Diego for the first time this year coming up this weekend but they have to get through two more games against the struggling D-backs. Arizona has won only 3 of it’s last 7 games and have really stumbled this month. Hopefully the Dodgers can win the series early tonight and then have a chance for their first sweep of the season tomorrow night.
Opening Day For Dodger Stadium
The Dodgers hope some home cooking can get them back on track after a failed 2-4 road trip against teams they normally dominate each year. They had the day off the regroup and we can expect the entire regular lineup including Ethier to make the start today.
Right now the Dodgers sit back 3.5 games in last place which is a strange feeling after a season that had the Dodgers in 1st place all year long give or take being as much as 1.5 games back early in April. Being 3.5 games isn’t much though and one good week can correct all that.
The Giants are surging and have gone 6-1 so far this season. Outside of that the rest of the division isn’t doing that great. If the Giants start to slow it down a bit (which they may not) then the Dodgers can catch up easily if they can work out the kinks.
That’s a big if though considering how poorly the Dodgers have been with defense and with pitching. The Dodgers lead the division in runs allowed so far. End to end every pitcher outside of Broxton has struggled and of course Broxton hasn’t been available when it mattered most so it’s hard to tell with him just yet.
The Dodgers, who ran with the front of the pack last year in fewest errors commited, already have 8 this season in just 6 games. Only the Marlins have more with 11 errors. That’s obviously a race you don’t want to win.
The bright spot continues to be hitting. The Dodgers have averaged 6 runs and 10 hits per game over the 6 games. They have outhit their opponents in 5 of 6 games and that’s generally a good way to win games unless your bullpen falters as the Dodgers has.
The Dodgers still aren’t hitting many home runs but they’re not exactly the singles machine they were a lot last year. They’re 2nd in baseball with 19 doubles and they have 2 triples and 3 home runs already. They’re second in baseball in batting AVG and have a strong slugging PCT so far. They’re also second in stolen bases which is a surprise since people weren’t expecting them to be a speedy team this year.
My hope is that at home the Dodgers can get a handle on defense and pitching and the hitting stays strong. We’ll see. The D-backs aren’t playing that poorly so far this year so it should be a good series.
Top NL West Blogs
In an effort to better track and reach out to folks in the NL West MLBlogs community I’ve added 5 dynamic lists of the top NL West blogs. You can find them down in the regular links section. I list 15 of the top Dodgers blogs, and 5 of the other 4 teams in the NL West.
If you’re like me and have a hard time reaching out to fans of teams outside the division because you just don’t know enough or care about those teams, this is your chance to keep in touch with fans of teams we see a lot more during the year and compete for a division title with.
The term “top” refers to updates. An update can be a new post or a comment on that site. Most of the updates are going to be comments. Hover over the link to see if it’s a Fan or Pro blog, when it was updated last, and how often it’s been updated since I started keeping track a few months back.
Let me know if you have any ideas on how to make this better or have any feedback at all. I’d love to hear it.
Costly Error By Dodgers Lets D-backs Avoid A Sweep
It was a battle of bullpens for a few innings tonight in Arizona. Haren and Garland had both left with the game tied 3-3. It didn’t take long for Troncoso to get in trouble in the 9th. A routine play turned into an error that let the D-backs get on 2nd with nobody out and a sacrifice moved the runner to 3rd. Two intentional walks and then an unintentional walk later and the game was over.
It had to happen sometime. The Dodgers bullpen hadn’t cost them a game in I don’t know how long so maybe they’ll get one out of their system before they face a tough series in San Francisco.
What is it about off days lately that always seem to mean a Dodgers loss? It’s bad enough for fans to see their team lose but to have to wait 24 extra hours to see another game? Well, that’s just not fair.
The Rockies won their game in dramatic fashion to make it 6 in a row, hard charging again and cutting the Dodgers lead down to just 2.5 games as it was a few games back. They play on the Dodgers off day and hopefully the Reds will salvage a win so LA ends up 3 games up instead of just 2. The Giants lost their game though so there’s really no sweating leaving Arizona having won 2 of the 3.
Both Arizona and San Diego survived another day without elimination in the NL West. The Dodgers finished the season series up 11-7 against Arizona, the first Western team the Dodgers are done with. They have 6 against the Giants, 3 against the Padres, and 3 against the Rockies before it’s all said and done.
Speaking of the Giants, unfortunately the Dodgers have lost the use of Wolf and Kershaw in the Giants series this weekend but at least the Giants have lost Lincecum on their end as well. The injuries are piling up for LA while the Rockies are apparently unaffected by their loss of one of their best starting pitchers and their good closer.
The Dodgers loss means the Cardinals take over the NL lead in wins. If the season ended today it would be Phillies @Dodgers and Rockies @Cardinals. That is a little better than the Cardinals @Dodgers and the Rockies @Phillies matchup that would happen if the Dodgers win more games than the Cardinals.
I’d much rather see the Dodgers face the Cardinals in an NLCS where they’d have 4 losses to work with instead of just 3. Let’s not put the cart before the horse though with 21 games to go.
I leave you with the updated split of the remaining 21 games, the Dodgers falling back a win from yesterday requiring their opponents to only win 94 games:
Dodgers: 10-11 finishing 93-69
- Rockies: 14-8 (.636) to reach 94 wins: +6
- Giants: 18-4 (.818) to reach 94 wins: +14
- Marlins: 20-3 (.869) to reach 94 wins: +17
- Cubs: 23-1 (.958) to reach 94 wins: +22
- Braves: 23-0 (1.000) to reach 94 wins: +23
Dodgers Rally To Win Frustrating Game
It looked like the Dodgers were headed to another frustrating loss tonight but after hitting into a franchise record 5 double plays the Dodgers burned the D-backs bullpen for 4 runs in the 8th and held on to win it.
Billingsley didn’t have his best stuff yet again but the Dodgers took him off the hook and won the series early. What on Earth is wrong with him? Hopefully he figures that out before October.
The Dodgers bullpen has really been keeping the team in games lately and tonight was no different. After Billingsley left McDonald and Kuo kept the D-backs in check and Jon Broxton got the save. The bullpen rarely allows runs lately and when they do it’s even more rare that those runs cost the Dodgers the game. The Dodgers are just getting pretty much the most solid output by their relievers that any team could hope for. They have a 1.44 ERA over the last 20 games, to put it in perspective.
The Rockies won so the Dodgers kept pace just 3.5 games in 1st still. If the Dodgers win tomorrow they will eliminate the D-backs from the NL West race. A Dodgers win tomorrow coupled with a Padres loss and they’ll be eliminated as well. Yes, folks. It’s that time of year. October is just around the corner.
I established my argument the other day that the Giants are the only threat left to the Dodgers playoff hopes. The Dodgers victory tonight coupled with the Giants loss put the Giants in an even tighter spot. The Marlins, Braves, and Cubs all won but their victories were dampened by the Dodgers win.
The Dodgers, who are 12-8 over the last 20 games, look to easily be able to split their remaining 22 games 11-11 finishing 94-68. Throwing the Rockies in just for good measure, this is how split would look after tonight’s action:
- Rockies: 16-7 (.695) to reach 95 wins: +9
- Giants: 19-4 (.826) to reach 95 wins: +15
- Marlins: 22-2 (.916) to reach 95 wins: +20
- Braves: 24-0 (1.000) to reach 95 wins: +24
- Cubs: 25-0 (1.000) to reach 95 wins: +25
You can see the Giants are down to just 4 losses left before they end up needing to win all their remaining games to beat a .500 playing Dodgers team. The Marlins have 2 wins while the Braces and Cubs are out of losses.
But remember this whole calculation is based on the premise that the Dodgers will win at least 11 of the next 22 games, and even .500 split. An extended losing streak by the Dodgers would essentially erode the Dodgers estimated final win count and give these teams some available losses again.
That being said, the Dodgers haven’t lost 2 games in a row in about 2 weeks while they have won 2 in a row three different times over that same time span. Playoff hopes for the Giants, Marlins, Braves and Cubs slip further out of reach every day it seems.
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