Dodgers Not Out of Running In West Despite Spinning Wheels
The Dodgers were 2 games out at the All-star break. Then they lost first 6 games after the break and only to win 4 out of the next 5 and are now 6 games out of 1st. That’s not how the Dodgers wanted to start the 2nd half but it’s no matter really. You just have to take a look at where they sat this time in each of the last few years to see how little we can gather from this point in time.
July 26 Of the Year (1st places in bold):
- 2010 – 3rd place, 6.0 games – Will Finish ???
- 2009 – 1st place, +8.0 games – Finished 1st, +3.0 games
- 2008 – 2nd place, -1.0 games – Finished 1st , +2.0 games
- 2007 – 1st place, +1.5 games – Finished 4th, -8.0 games
- 2006 – 5th place, -7.5 games – Finished 1st, +11.5 games
- 2005 – 3rd place, -4.0 games – Finished 4th, -11.0 games
- 2004 – 1st place, +3.5 games – Finished 1st, +2.0 games
- 2003 – 3rd place, -12.5 games – Finished 2nd, -15.5 games
- 2002 – 2nd place, -4.0 games – Finished 3rd place, -6.0 games
- 2001 – 2nd place, -0.5 games – Finished 3rd place, -6.0 games
Leading, tied, or far behind is no matter still at this point in time. What matters most is what the Dodgers do from here on out to make their team better and to shore up the weaknesses.
Simple Projection of Standings Based on Performance So Far
Taking into account the performances up to now in 4 areas (home outside division, away outside division, home against division, away against division) here is a simple projected final standings:
- Padres: 58-39 so far, 96-66 projected
- Dodgers: 53-46 so far, 92-70 projected (-4.0)
- Giants: 56-43 so far, 88-74 projected (-8.0)
- Rockies: 50-46 so far, 87-75 projected (-9.0)
- D-backs: 37-62 so far, 59-103 projected (-37.0)
Dodgers Starting Pitching Making Up For Tepid Offense And Questionable Bullpen
The Dodgers starters have allowed only 1 earned run in the last 37 innings. It feels like the they have only scored 1 run in the last 37 innings. LA has now won 4 of the last 5 games though, after dropping 6 in a row.
The Dodgers bullpen is still in question. With Belisario still on the restricted list and Sherrill being an enigma this season, it’s been up to Broxton and Kuo to carry the squad. Kenley Jansen has arrived and is making a big splash now though and could be the answer the team has been looking for. It would be nice to see LA trade for a reliever as well to try and get some more quality in there.
The Dodgers 3-1 series win over the Mets sets the stage for a showdown between the Padres and the Dodgers starting on Tuesday. The Dodgers have won 4 of 5 this season against San Diego. If the Dodgers can avoid a sweep they’ll be OK. If they can win or sweep they’ll be headed in the right direction. Considering how good the Dodgers have been against the West this season it wouldn’t be shocking to see the Dodgers end up just 3 games out before they head to San Francisco for the weekend.
All in all the Dodgers still have 13 games left against the Padres. How they do in those games alone will be key to whether the Dodgers make the playoffs or whether they just fade into the offseason disappointed.
Losing Streak Extending Into Important Games Now
It was one thing to be losing in St. Louis. It’s another to be losing back to back games against the NLW at home. But sure enough in bizarre fashion the Dodgers dropped game 2 of the series after leading most of the night. It was a night full of inside pitches, ejections, and technicalities but it all added up to a disappointing loss for LA. The Dodgers lost only their first series inside the NLW so far this year in 11 tries.
One story of this season seems to be the overuse of the core components of the bullpen, mainly Johnathan Broxton. Brought in for a 5 out save 2 games ago, Broxton failed to shut the door and let the Cardinals slip through for a sweep. Last night Broxton came in and was still obviously tired though he might have gotten the save anyway had he not been removed after acting manager Mattingley touched the mound twice.
It’s clear the Dodgers are in desperate need of bullpen help. Kuo should be closing on days when Broxton needs rest but they seem to be going to Kuo early because there are so few guys they can count on in the clutch in the pen. I don’t look for the Dodgers to find the great starter they need but I’ll be content with some fresh, reliable arms for the bullpen. These should be much easier to come by.
Hopefully the Dodgers can prevent a sweep tonight and start a winning streak. The Mets are on a 2-8 slide right now just like the Dodgers so if both teams lose today it could be an ugly matchup between two teams on the decline.
Does The Cardinals Sweep Change Anything For The Dodgers?
After the Cardinals demolished the Dodgers in St. Louis and took the season series 4 games to 3 with a 4 game sweep, some Dodger fans may be nervous. The truth is you can chock that up to classic Dodgers in St. Louis Syndrome. It would have been nice to split or even just take 1 of the games but in the end the Dodgers key is to win against the west and play well at home.
One thing I must say is I certainly called the Giants season over too soon. They were 7.5 games out just a few weeks ago and I called them dead in the water. Now they are ahead of the Dodgers by 1 game and are just 4.5 games out of 1st. All things considered if I say the Dodgers can win the west technically now I must say the Giants can too.
My projection still believes the Giants will finish as a .500 team though. The Dodgers play the Giants in LA tonight and they’ll see if they can’t help them reach that point quicker.
The Dodgers trail the Padres by 1 game in my latest projection and come in with 94 games to the Padres 95 which is good enough for the Wildcard in the National League.
Simple Projection of Standings Based on Performance So Far
Taking into account the performances up to now in 4 areas (home outside division, away outside division, home against division, away against division) here is a simple projected final standings:
- Padres: 54-37 so far, 95-67 projected
- Dodgers: 49-43 so far, 94-68 projected (-1.0)
- Rockies: 49-40 so far, 89-73 projected (-6.0)
- Giants: 50-42 so far, 81-81 projected (-14.0)
- D-backs: 34-58 so far, 61-101 projected (-34.0)
Why I Already Think the Dodgers Will Win the West
The Dodgers are just 2 games behind the Padres as they start the 2nd half of the season. That means they need to win only 3 more games than the Padres to clinch a 3rd straight NLW championship. It’s not always easy to make up ground in a division unless one team melts down or another team goes on a hot streak but when it’s a matter of just 3 games anything can happen.
The 1st half success of the Padres revolved around their success outside of the division while the Dodgers success clearly revolved around success inside the division. The Dodgers have won 7 more division games than the Padres and the Padres have won 9 more games than the Dodgers outside of the division for a net of 2 plus games for the Padres lead.
Only 1/3 of the first 88 games were inside the division where the Padres are a break-even 16-15 against the the NLW. The trouble for San Diego lies in the fact that Western matchups make up nearly 2/3 of the remaining 74 games for both teams. This gives a significant advantage to the Dodgers who finished the first half an incredible 23-6. The Dodgers have 43 of 74 games left against the division and the Padres have 41 of 74.
It’s unrealistic to think that the Dodgers can somehow maintain that 23-6 record they have against the NLW but LA doesn’t need a huge comeback to overcome San Diego. They can win the division if they stay on track against division teams and they don’t suffer any key injuries.
Simple Projection of Standings Based on Performance So Far
Taking into account the performances up to now in 4 areas (home outside division, away outside division, home against division, away against division) here is a simple projected final standings:
- Dodgers: 49-39 so far, 95-67 projected
- Padres: 51-37 so far, 92-70 projected (-3.0)
- Rockies: 48-38 so far, 90-72 projected (-5.0)
- Giants: 47-41 so far, 81-81 projected (-14.0)
- D-backs: 34-55 so far, 62-100 projected (-33.0)
Dodgers Half Way Through
The Dodgers through 81 games have a 45-36 record and sit in solid 2nd place just 3.5 games behind the Padres. It’s been a weird year so far.
It’s hard to believe last year the Dodgers took 1st place and held it relatively comfortable for the rest of the season. This year not so much. The Dodgers fell behind the Padres early on and have struggled to keep up. LA has been in first place a couple of times but never held on with Interleague being a big part of the Dodgers slip in the standings.
When considering the results so far I like to see how the teams are doing at home, on the road and inside the division. Looking ahead I like to add up the records of all the opponents teams will face going forward and see how much above or below .500 that record is. That can give a bit of perspective on how tough or how easy a schedule could be for that team.
Padres So Far
The Padres win well this year whether they’re home or away. They are 22-14 on the road which is the best in the NL. They are 8 games above .500 on the road which matches their 8 games difference at home. This is due to their outstanding pitching no doubt.
The Padres have struggled against the NLW a little but they are still 2 games above .500 overall. The Padres play a lot of easy teams in the 2nd half including 4 series with the D-backs, 2 series with the Pirates, and 2 series with the Cubs. The overall record of the teams the Padres face from here on out is -70.
For the Padres to hold back the Dodgers and Rockies San Diego will need to keep pitching well. The question remains can they do it? Will their bullpen stay consistent as the innings add up over the long season? As a Dodger fan I hope not.
Dodgers So Far
First of all the Dodgers are destroying the division. They are 23-6 in 10 series. They have won 9 of the 9 total 3 game series and they split a 2 game series with the Padres. What will help the Dodgers in the 2nd half is that 43 of 81 remaining games are against division foes.
The Dodgers managed to even their road record to 21-21 with a win yesterday. They play slightly more games at home from here on out than they do away but they still face some very tough teams. The overall record of the teams the Dodgers face from here on out is +51.
For the Dodgers to overcome the Padres they will need to continue doing what they are doing. My formula for success for them this season is to play around .500 on the road, play great at home, and continue to destroy the teams inside the division. If they do that they are on track for another 95 win season and could easily be in a spot to win the division or capture the wildcard.
Rockies So Far
The Rockies are the weird team of the division. They are 11 over .500 at home and 5 over on the road. They are doing fair inside the division. Overall though they’ve had a fairly mediocre 1st half. They have the ability to play better in the 2nd half for sure so I can’t say anything that discounts their threat inside the division.
The Rockies still play some tough teams but overall they have a decent schedule ahead of them. The overall record of the teams the Rockies face from here on out is +30.
Giants So Far
The Giants were top of the pack for a long time but they’ve fallen off in a big way in the last few weeks. They’ve lost their last 5 series and they are 4-12 over that stretch. They sit in 4th place 7.5 games back and unless they make some kind of trade their season may end pretty early.
The Giants have very few tough teams left to face. The problem is they aren’t succeeding inside the division so this could hurt them. The overall record of the teams the Giants face from here on out is +20.
D-backs So Far
The team that some picked to lead the division this year has done anything but. They’ve compiled a 32-50 record and they fired the manager and general manager just a few days ago. They would have to go 57-23 just to tie the Padres if the Padres won only 40 of the remaining 80 games. It’s all but over already for the D-backs baring some massive meltdown of the rest of the division in combination with some superior surge by Arizona. In short, better luck next year, D-backs.
Simple Projection of Standings Based on Performance So Far
Taking into account the teams performances up to now in 4 areas (home outside division, away outside division, home against division, away against division) here is a simple projected final standings:
- Padres: 49-33 so far, 96-66 projected
- Dodgers: 45-36 so far, 95-67 projected (-1.0)
- Rockies: 43-37 so far, 89-73 projected (-7.0)
- Giants: 41-40 so far, 77-85 projected (-19.0)
- D-backs: 32-50 so far, 64-98 projected (-32.0)
Yankees Muscle Their Way Past Tired Broxton, Take Series
The Dodgers will lose a lot of close games and they’ll lose a lot of games that aren’t close but that’s baseball and it doesn’t hurt all that much. Losing a big lead in a huge game like tonight is absolutely heart breaking though.
Going into the 9th ahead 6-2 the Broxton got the first out but wouldn’t record the 2nd until the game was tied. He was clearly tired from a long outing last night and he didn’t have the control or velocity he needed to get the job done.
In the 10th with the better parts of the Dodgers bullpen long gone it was up to Troncoso and Sherrill to keep the Dodgers in the game. A two run home run was the result of the Yankees efforts. Just like that all of the Dodgers hard work and great hitting today was erased. Just like that the Yankees had capped the series with a 6 run come from behind victory.
I am thankful for two things right now. First, there is no off day tomorrow. This time tomorrow none of us will be thinking about tonight’s loss all that much and we’ll all be focused on the game in progress.
The second thing is that Interleague is over and these tough teams have all gone home. The Dodgers travel up the coast to face the Giants in San Francisco and even if it doesn’t go well at least we know the Dodgers are back inside the division and the league and June is almost over.
Dodgers Pile On Hits and Walks But Can’t Get The Wins
The last 10 games for the Dodgers have been pretty rough. They’ve won 3 and lost 7. They’ve allowed 2 or fewer runs to score in 5 of the 10 but they’ve lost 3 of those. In the last 5 games alone the Dodgers have had a starter go 7 innings and allow only 2 runs to score and all three games have been lost. Those 3 games alone would have put the Dodgers at a decent 6-4 record over the last 10 games.
So what’s the problem? Clearly the Dodgers aren’t scoring that many runs but it’s not from lack of hitting so much. More specifically it’s lack of timely hitting. The Dodgers are averaging 9.3 hits and 3.4 walks per game. Yet, over that 10 game stretch they are 27 for 101 with RISP and have left 83 on base. Ouch.
After going 20-8 in May the Dodgers are 10-12 in June. They are tied for 3rd place with the Rockies now, 4 games behind the Padres. Perhaps it’s the tough teams the Dodgers are playing or the lack of Furcal for some of that stretch. Whatever it is, it needs to stop. LA has 5 more games this month and it would be nice to see them finish with a wining record but that’s going to be tough now.
Dodgers Finish Weak Red Sox Series
The good news is the Dodgers are done playing the Red Sox. The bad news is they still have 6 interleague games left. LA is 2-7 against the AL so far this season.
The Dodgers have rarely played below .500 in any 10 game stretch but they’ve now won only 3 games out of the last 10 and find themselves in 3rd place behind the Giants and Padres.
The Dodgers couldn’t find a solution to the Red Sox this weekend. They lead 1-0 in the top of the 2nd inning of Game 2 but otherwise never held a lead over Boston for any other amount of time. All in all it was a fun series to watch but the Dodgers certainly didn’t impress much.
They get a day off to travel home before they play in Anaheim. Wake me when June is over.
First Place, We Hardly Knew Ye
The Freeway series for the Dodgers has been anything but successful so far. The Angels have outscored LA 14-3 and the Dodgers have gone 1-14 with RISP in the two games. This has let the Padres slip back into sole 1st place pushing the Dodgers back down to 2nd.
Today LA looks to it’s 5th starter Monasterios to try and somehow keep the Dodgers in the game and prevent a sweep. They might be able to claim back a share of 1st place as well if things go their way.
The Dodgers get an off day before they start a tough road trip through Cincinnati, Boston and Anaheim. They desperately need a win today because the Padres sure won’t make it easy on LA this month and the schedule still favors San Diego heavily.
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